Are you ready for Brexit?

Now that Brexit is getting real, it is vital for you to stay informed about what happens next and how it affects your business.

Below you are able to download our FBCMB regional tube maps, where you can find your sector line and see the issues that will affect you on each stop. You will travel through zones covering international standards, EU rules, opportunities, people and trade. On each step of this journey you will need advice and our team are on hand to provide it.

 

The big questions are; how will you do business in the short term in the event of no deal? In the medium term during any transitional period between Brexit and the entry into force of a new UK-EU trade agreement? And in the long term under the new trade agreement?

It is already clear, however, that you or those you supply are not going to enjoy the same access to the EU's Single Market under a trade agreement as you do while the UK is a member of the EU.

The main threat you face is uncertainty about the outcome. Nonetheless, you need to assess the impact of a worst-case-scenario Brexit now, in other words without any withdrawal agreement in place, and have in place contingency plans which are flexible enough to respond to developments in the negotiations.

Download our briefings if you are in:

Agriculture

Sheep Farming

Manufacturing

Automotive

Leisure and Hospitality

Our team can help you with all that you need in four steps:

  1. Information - You need to have procedures in place to ensure you are well-informed about the Brexit process. Relying on press reports won’t be enough. Understanding and forecasting the likely impacts are fundamental to your Brexit strategy to gaining early competitive advantage. FBC Manby Bowdler will give you with a tailored service which monitors progress, analyses published documents, and identifies the impacts for your business the moment they become clear.

  2. Preparation - Prepare for Brexit with and without a deal. To do so, businesses should carry out a Brexit legal impact assessment followed by a Brexit commercial impact assessment. These will form the baseline of any contingency measures. To be Brexitproof, FBC Manby Bowdler’s online survey can help you legally and commercially.

  3. Action - Based on this survey, you should decide what contingency plans you need and when they should be activated. You might be marginally or massively impacted. Contingency measures could include setting up alternative supply chains, identifying new customer markets, or re-skilling employees. FBC Manby Bowdler has been at the forefront of advising clients on the commercial implications of Brexit. We have the experience to help you devise and implement contingency measures for your business, and stress-test them against a range of Brexit scenarios, whatever industry you operate in.

  4. Influencing - The best way to avoid a Brexit that damages your business is to influence the outcome yourself. Brexit provides an opportunity to do that, which businesses should exploit more. FBC Manby Bowdler has the benefit of advisers in Brussels and London. We can devise and implement policy advocacy strategies to influence the course of further Brexit negotiations, the negotiations on a new trade agreement and build long-term regulatory compliance strategies, including relationship-building with key influencers and government authorities.

Our team of experienced sector specialists has examined the potential impact of the Brexit in your sector. Peter Wilding, our Brexit Director, is able to provide in-depth analysis on the political, policy and legal implications of Brexit, and translate what they mean for manufacturing, agricultural and hospitality clients. He has an expert understanding of how each piece of the jigsaw of EU policy and legislation fits together, an insider’s knowledge of the political and administrative processes of the negotiations, and considerable experience of how UK legislation is enacted. Few other lawyers have a background so suited to giving Brexit advice.

Brexit: Where we are...

28/02/2019

You are not alone if you feel bewildered by Brexit. The latest developments mean talk of delays, extensions and a new referendum have dominated the headlines.

Here, FBC Manby Bowdler Brexit Director Peter Wilding takes a look at the current situation and explains just what it all means.

BREXIT: Where we are:

When will this ever end? You can only look on bewildered as the Brexit drama reaches its climax. But the frequent deferrals in this denouement are just armies waiting to pounce for the final battle. This is why 687 hours until Brexit (less than 30 days!) we still don't know:

  • If Brexit will happen on 29 March
  • If we will have a deal
  • If the Labour party will survive
  • If the Tory party will survive
  • How to stop (not delay) no-deal
  • Whether necessary SIs can be passed in time
  • Whether the EU will allow an A50 extension
  • Whether we have to take part in the European elections in May
  • What Jeremy Corbyn's own definitive cast-iron position is on 2nd referendum
  • What the second "Brexit" in "Brexit means Brexit" means
  • What the ERG are thinking?!?

But this is a battle when all sides are still plotting the best chance of winning. It was always likely that February and March 2019 would be the time when those who want deal, no deal or no Brexit would have their best chance of success. It was always probable that these final weeks of the article 50 process were going to provide Brexit’s high-noon moment. And that is precisely where we find ourselves now. That’s true on all sides, whether pro- or anti-Brexit. A battle cannot be infinitely postponed. Brexit must either take place on 29 March or not. If it does take place, Brexit's first business day is April 1st when the long term trade policy discussions which will affect all in the West Midlands begin.

Key question one: Can May's deal win?

This week, fearing that more Conservatives could revolt over her refusal to rule out no deal, May managed to buy a bit more time from the Tory party by her concession that the 29 March deadline may be missed and that the article 50 process may have to be extended if the government loses its plan B vote on 12 March.

May’s entire Brexit strategy is now being kept alive by two things. The first is her consistent leaning to the right in order to keep Conservative MPs onside behind her Brexit plan. The second is her hope that the attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, can agree some form of legal wording with the EU to enable him to change his advice that the Northern Irish backstop could be legally permanent. And if Cox gets the form of words that May craves, it will be the only change from the plan A on which May was trounced in January. That doesn’t automatically mean that the 118 Tories who voted against plan A will not vote for plan B either. If he does change his advice, 100 DUP and pro-Brexit Tories may be persuaded to back the deal, meaning it would only take 20 rogue Labour MPs to get May over the line. Britain will leave on March 29th. But it surely means that if May loses on 12 March, and especially if she loses badly, she will have no plan C to put in its place, except extension.

Key question two: Extension. How and for how long?

Yet the extension of article 50 is potentially a watershed concession. Extending article 50, in other words, would mean having to embrace a new approach to Brexit. The question is how long is Article 50 extended for? Mrs May is going to ask for 2 months, to make a referendum impossible. May’s pretence is that this is just a small matter, a little bit of added time because of unexpected holdups. She talked again on Wednesday of such an extension being short and limited. That is unrealistic. It assumes that the extension would merely be granted for the purpose of ensuring that MPs finally give their approval to a revision of her original plan and for putting this on the necessary legislative foundation.

But it is the EU 27 who decide if and for how long. The French have said any extension must be for a purpose other than can-kicking; the Germans have suggested 21 extra months. The tabloids will be full of treason and betrayal headlines. Faced with a final cliff-edge choice between no deal and a long take-it-or-leave-it extension Parliament may vote for a longer extension, if offered. The political crisis could then explode into two months of upheaving involving a leadership or a general election topped off, to add to the mayhem, by a mandated European election on May 23rd, a contest which could reshape the parties in what would be a proxy referendum.

If May's deal does not get through, this crisis has a lot further and deeper to go before the Brexit story fizzles out.

Here at FBC Manby Bowdler we have a stellar team of experts on our dedicated Brexit Advisory Team who can help you take control of your business whatever the politicians decide over Brexit.

If you would like to contact Peter or the rest of the team to discuss any of the above please call 01694 724440, 07901 008220 or email p.wilding@fbcmb.co.uk.


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